# Ella Libanova: Ukraine's population in government-controlled territory has fallen to 28.5 million

- URL: https://syn.by/en/politics/international-relations/ella-libanova-ukraines-population/
- Published: 2026-10-23T11:30:14+00:00
- Updated: 2026-10-27T10:50:06+00:00
- Section: International Relations
- Language: en
- RU edition: https://syn.by/ru/politika/mezhdunarodnye-otnosheniya/ella-libanova-nasyelyeniye-ukrainy.md
- BE edition: https://syn.by/palityka/mizhnarodnyya-adnosiny/ela-libanava-nasielnictva-ukrainy.md

> According to her, since the start of 2026 the country has lost about half a million people, mainly through emigration. Libanova expects men to leave Ukraine en masse once martial law is lifted.

![Ella Libanova — Ella Libanova: Ukraine's population in government-controlled territory has fallen to 28.5 million](https://syn.by/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/ella-libanova-2422-1024x585.webp)

Ella Libanova said that the estimate of Ukraine's population for mid-2026 is 28.5 million. According to her, work on the estimate was completed a few days ago. Recently, she said, the country has lost half a million people through emigration.

The figure refers to the territory controlled by the Ukrainian government. It is half a million lower than earlier estimates.

According to these data, Ukraine's population has fallen from 29 million to 28.5 million. Libanova says that over the latest period the country lost half a million people, above all through emigration.

As non-state Belarusian outlets report, the estimate puts the number of people living in Ukraine at 28.5 million now. That is half a million fewer than at the start of 2026 and 12.6 million fewer than in January 2022.

Libanova names emigration, rather than deaths, as the main cause. In her words: "We have already lost half a million. We lost them not so much through deaths as through emigration [abroad]."

Going forward, by her forecast, emigration may grow. After martial law is lifted, men who are currently restricted from leaving will be able to leave the country. Libanova believes that once hostilities end, men will leave en masse, and she allows for a new wave of migration.

Some of the men, she says, may go to families who have long lived abroad. The problem, as she describes it, is that Ukrainian families have often ended up on different sides of the border. Libanova also sees in this a chance for some Ukrainians to return to the country.

According to UN estimates, several million Ukrainians are abroad, and far from all of them intend to return. According to the Ukrainian government, in 2022 alone 9.43 million citizens officially left the country.

Libanova doubts that men returning from the front will stay. The state, she says, will not be able to offer them the jobs and salaries they would consider suitable. Then the question arises of where families will reunite: in Ukraine or outside it. For her, this is not only about losses. She said: "Why do I say thank God? Because, whatever happens, these people stayed alive. If we bring them back to Ukraine, wonderful. If we don't, they are still Ukrainians" (translation).

Leaving the country remains strictly restricted. Since the start of 2022, border guards have officially denied exit to almost 43 thousand men of conscription age. Because mobilisation is under way, only a few can leave legally, the Ukrainian outlet informator.ua writes.

The 2001 census counted about 48.5 million people in Ukraine. According to calculations by pro-Russian outlets, even by Libanova's estimate the country has lost almost 20 million people over a quarter of a century. They specify that the comparison includes Crimea and territories not controlled by Kyiv.

According to the World Bank, Ukraine's GDP in 2025 was 214.2 billion dollars, with growth of 1.8% and inflation of 12.7%. The bank estimates the country's population at 39.0 million for 2025 and writes that over five years it has fallen by 13%. Libanova's estimate refers to the government-controlled territory.

The IMF forecasts GDP growth of 1% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027. It expects inflation of 8.9% and 8.7%. Unemployment, by the fund's estimate, was 11.6% in 2025, and is forecast at 10.2% in 2026 and 11.3% in 2027. Public debt reached 107.1% of GDP in 2025 and is forecast to be 111.8% in 2026.

Libanova says the state will not be able to offer returning men acceptable work. The IMF's unemployment forecast for 2027, 11.3%, does not contradict her concerns.

Belarus is already receiving Ukrainians. According to the State Border Committee, as of 7 June 2025, 40558 Ukrainian citizens had entered the country since the start of the year, 31588 of them in transit through Poland. In August 2014, Alaksandr Lukashenka signed a decree on the stay of Ukrainian citizens in Belarus, which provides support and benefits for those who arrive.