Ukrainian intelligence: in 2027 Belarus will spend about 4.32 billion dollars on defence and the security sector

In 2027 Belarus plans to spend about 4.32 billion dollars on defence, law enforcement and security, which is almost 21% of all the country's budget spending. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine. The Belarusian authorities have not commented on these estimates.

Divided by the population, that sum comes to about 475 dollars per resident of Belarus. At the same time, according to the Ukrainian side, total budget spending will grow by only 3.6%.

Defence spending, according to the intelligence service, will increase by 15% to 1.76 billion dollars. For courts, law enforcement and security, 2.54 billion dollars is planned, which is 11.5% more.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs, by Ukrainian intelligence's estimate, will be allocated about 945 million dollars, against 856 million a year earlier. Spending on the prosecutor's office will grow by 16.2%, on the courts by 14.7%, on the border service by 14.4%, and on the state security bodies by 13%. The penitentiary system will get roughly 10% more funds.

The main increase, according to the intelligence service, will go to the structures that control society and ensure that Alaksandr Lukashenka stays in power. The intelligence service claims that Minsk is increasing spending on the security apparatus much faster than on other items, and that less and less money is left for the state's other needs. This is the assessment of a Ukrainian intelligence service, from a country at war and interested in putting pressure on Minsk; the Belarusian authorities themselves have not declared such aims.

According to the intelligence service, in 2021–2025 actual spending on law enforcement and security exceeded the original plan every year. In 2022 the difference was about 36 million dollars, and in 2025 it was 82 million.

In 2022–2025 the state security bodies on average spent 8.6% more than planned, the border service 5% more, and the Ministry of Internal Affairs 4.5% more. Defence spending exceeded the plan by 26% in 2022, and in 2024 and 2025 was lower than planned by about 12% and 4%.