Belarus covered about 30% of Russia’s gasoline production shortfall, but has no reserves left

Belarusian gasoline supplies offset about "30% of the gasoline production shortfall" in Russia (translation), and also accounted for almost half of the fuel's imports onto the Russian market. By July–August Belarusian refineries had come close to maximum load, and there were no reserves left for further growth in output.

The 30% estimate was given by Dmitry Kruk and Evgeny Makarchuk. Belarus's gains from the Russian gasoline crisis turned out to be short-term, FREE Network stated on 9 November 2026.

The shortage in Russia arose after a number of refineries were shut down because of attacks and unplanned repairs. Gasoline production in the country fell by 25%, according to the background note. The Ryazan refinery was able to continue operating only at half capacity because its main oil processing units were damaged. The Novokuibyshevsk plant has been completely shut down since 2 August: a drone damaged its main unit.

Neither Belarus nor Kazakhstan currently has the capacity to resolve a crisis of this scale on its own.

In September 2026 it was reported that Belarusian gasoline imports into Russia over nine months of the year could exceed 1 million tonnes. In April 2016 Belarus promised to supply Russia with a million tonnes of gasoline over that year.

Moscow is looking for other sources. Russia is considering importing fuel from China, Singapore and South Korea. Talks with Kazakhstan on supplying about 50000 tonnes of AI-92 gasoline are under way, according to the background note. The use of condensate is also being considered, which could yield up to 10000 tonnes of gasoline a month. In addition, preparatory work is under way in Russia to build a second line of the Druzhba oil pipeline, which would double its capacity.

The investment director of Alfa Capital said that, besides India and Belarus, Russia could also import fuel from other countries.

Aliaksandr Tsishchanka said that the plants produce enough fuel and that companies are supplied in line with their requests. According to him, the concern offered the parent companies of Russian representative offices to work under tolling schemes: Russian companies bring oil into Belarus, and Belarusian plants make fuel from it.

According to Bloomberg on 22 October 2026, Rosneft is deliberately dragging out repairs at some of its refineries, stretching them from several days to weeks.